Publication

This report analyzes the 2007 presidential election in Nigeria. It argues that if power is succeeded peacefully, it will offer Nigeria the first opportunity to achieve a genuine constitutional succession from one civilian administration to another since independence in 1960, thus consolidating democracy. However, a failure could provoke denial of legitimacy to the new government, intensification of the insurgency in the Niger Delta and its possible extension to other areas, with potential for wider West African destabilization.