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The two levels referred to in the above title include systemic balancing, which is driven by current global power distributions and perceptions of major threats, and regional hedging, which is motivated largely by domestic and regional considerations. In the case of the South China Sea, the dynamic between these overlapping levels is as follows. When regional squabbles over sovereignty migrate into the realm of China‐US relations, Russia inevitably acts to balance against American unipolar dominance. Conversely, when the US isn’t the focal point, Moscow’s policies focus more on the regional balance of power and can be more sympathetic to countries that have local disputes with China.