Publication

North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests combined with bellicose rhetoric from the US mean the risk of a catastrophic war on the Korean peninsula is higher than at any time in recent history. Yet a short reprieve ahead of the February 2018 Winter Olympics, renewed dialogue between North and South Korea, and Pyongyang’s desire to show economic progress during this year’s 70th anniversary of its founding provide an opportunity to dial down the crisis. In light of the situation, this two part report examines 1) the interests and calculations of the states most affected or involved in the current standoff: North Korea, the US, South Korea, China, Japan and Russia; and 2) possible steps to de-escalate the crisis and buy time for a more durable solution.