Publication

This publication contends that the US’s withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will critically affect power dynamics and state-society relations in Iran. Indeed, the text's author argues that the return of US sanctions will exacerbate already existing economic and environmental crises in Iran, meaning protests, which may even occasionally descend into violent unrest, are likely. The Iranian regime will probably be able to maintain stability by adopting measures to keep the economic hardship below a critical threshold. However, these measures will still fall short of introducing meaningful developmental policies, as the overall priority will be economic and political survival rather than growth.