Publication

This paper contends that a new phase in Syria’s war augurs an escalation with Israel. As the Assad regime gains the upper hand, Hizbollah probes Syria’s southwest and Iran seeks to augment its partners’ military capacities, Israel has grown fearful that Syria is becoming an Iranian base. This is a problem as 1) it is undermining the factors that have contained Israeli-Hizbollah clashes for over a decade; and 2) it could lead to a deadly cycle of attack and response in which everyone will lose. In response, the text’s authors argue Russia should act to mediate to prevent a new front from opening in the conflict, particularly as it is the only actor capable of doing so.