Publication

What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? Will we witness Republika Srpska declare independence, a worsening of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, and the rise of ethnic tensions – or will we celebrate Montenegro and Serbia joining the EU? The paper presents three contrasting scenarios on the future trajectory of the region – a best-case, a moderate and a worst-case scenario. It also highlights 1) key trends that are unlikely to change by 2025, but will play a key role in the region; and 2) six possible game-changing factors that will influence policymaking related to the Western Balkans, and thus how its future will unfold.