Opportunity Costs or Costly Opportunities?

The Arab Spring, Osama Bin Laden, and al Qaeda's African Affiliate

Autor(en): Alex Wilner
Journaltitel: Perspectives on Terrorism
Reviewed:  
Band: 5
Ausgabe: 3
Seiten: 50-62
Verlag(e): Terrorism Research Initiative
Publikationsjahr: 2011

There is little doubt that Al-Qaeda faces twin challenges in the Arab Spring sweeping North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) and in the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Al-Qaeda's violent narrative has come under immense pressure following the toppling of Arab regimes by largely secular and peaceful protest movements while the removal of bin Laden robs the organization of a charismatic and unifying figure. Yet for Al-Qaeda's most prominent African affiliates - Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and Somalia's Al-Shabaab - the political upheaval sweeping the MENA region also creates opportunities for growth. And while the elimination of Al-Qaeda's founding leader will certainly sting, bin Laden's exit is unlikely to greatly influence AQIM's or Al-Shabaab's aspirations, tactics, or strategies. This paper offers a critical overview of the costs and opportunities to Al-Qaeda's African allies in light of the Arab Spring and bin Laden's death.

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