Trends to Watch in 2019

18 Jan 2019

By CSS Resources team for Center for Security Studies (CSS)

What are the key conflicts and foreign policy trends to watch in 2019? Here are three outlooks from The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), the International Crisis Group (ICG) and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Preventive Priorities Survey 2019

Each year, the CFR’s Center for Preventive Action asks foreign policy experts to rank thirty conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating and their potential impact on US interests. In this article, Paul B States outlines the survey’s results for 2019, which include that 1) threats to the US homeland, including cyberattacks and terrorist attacks, remain top-tier concerns; 2) despite growing apprehension over US-China tensions, only one contingency involving Beijing is a top-tier issue; 3) concern over South Asia has diminished but risen regarding Latin America, and more.

10 Conflicts to Watch in 2019

Robert Malley argues that as the era of US primacy fades, more leaders are being tempted to test limits in domestic affairs and by meddling in foreign conflicts. As a result, the international order as we know it is unravelling, with no clear sense of what will come in its wake. But the danger may lie less in the ultimate destination than in the process of getting there. Indeed, as Malley’s assessment here of 10 key conflicts to watch in 2019 illustrates, that road will be bumpy and perilous.

Top Ten Foreign Policy Trends in 2019

In this blog, Mark Leonard and Jeremy Shapiro outline their predictions for the top ten trends that will occupy European foreign policymakers in 2019. These include 1) that President Trump will take control over US foreign policy; 2) the North Korea denuclearization process will break down; 3) China will apply to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership; 4) the Ukraine crisis will flare up; 5) a global turndown will trigger a financial crisis in Turkey, and more. Our authors also outline their predictions for Brexit.

2018 in Review

For an overview of some of the core subjects covered by the CSS’ think tank and researchers in 2018, please see our themes page. Key topics covered include Swiss security policy, European security, armament policies and arms control, cybersecurity, mediation, critical infrastructure protection and more.

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