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Feb 2017

  • 24 Feb 2017
    Paul Bracken
    War on the Rocks
    Paul Bracken thinks it’s a good time to revisit the Cold War idea of nuclear blackmail. After all, 1) nine countries have The Bomb now, so the opportunity for blackmail is greater than ever; 2) the cautious, risk-avoiding behavior of the Cold War may no longer apply to our current nuclear age; and 3) it’s important that we’re able to distinguish between nuclear blackmail and blackmail in a nuclear context, which is something quite different.
  • 24 Feb 2017
    Richard N Haass
    Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
    Operating an international order that’s premised solely on respect for sovereignty and a complementary balance of power system is no longer appropriate, argues Richard Haass. Indeed, today’s circumstances call for an updated operating model — call it World Order 2.0 — that includes not only the rights of sovereign states but also those states’ obligations to others. Here’s what such a world would look like.
  • 23 Feb 2017
    Bryan Clark
    Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA)
    Bryan Clark thinks the United States is at an inflection point when it comes to its national security. As a result, the country needs to redesign its military and implement new ways to deter aggression. It should privilege, for example, fresh operational concepts that focus on air and missile defense, electromagnetic spectrum warfare, strike and surface capabilities, and much more.
  • 23 Feb 2017
    Hanns Maull
    Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP)
    Is the concept of autism a useful tool to analyze problematic foreign policy behaviors by states? Hanns Maull believes so. To support his thesis, he defines 1) ‘foreign policy autism’; 2) provides examples of it, both as a weakness and ‘emotionally charged’ phenomenon; and 3) considers the implications of relying on the autism metaphor as an instrument of analysis.
  • 22 Feb 2017
    Floris van der Beek
    African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD)
    As Floris van der Beek sees it, the African Union (AU) is a step ahead of the EU in its development of continental peace and security structures. The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), for example, is largely operational and is one of five African examples, both positive and negative, that might help develop an effective security framework for the EU.
  • 22 Feb 2017
    Jonathan Masters
    Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
    Here’s a pithy, soup-to-nuts description of economic sanctions, courtesy of Jonathan Masters. He specifically lays out 1) what constitutes this form of punishment and when it is typically applied; 2) the sanctions processes of the UN, EU and US (in the latter case, Masters also covers how Washington’s approach changed after the 9/11 attacks); 3) the nature of extraterritorial sanctions; and 4) whether sanctions generally work or not.
  • 21 Feb 2017
    Esther Meininghaus and Andreas Heinemann-Grüder
    Bonn International Center for Conversion (BICC)
    Is it time to try and establish safe zones in Syria again? Esther Meininghaus and Andreas Heinemann-Grüder believe so. They specifically call for 1) a countrywide no-fly zone, except for Islamic State-controlled areas in the east; 2) a UN mandate to deploy peacekeeping forces; 3) a needs-based distribution system for humanitarian aid; and 4) preventing the creation of small-scale safe areas along Syria’s borders.
  • 21 Feb 2017
    Elisabeth Braw
    Atlantic Council
    This spring, the Swedish government is expected to revive military conscription after a seven year hiatus, thus joining its neighbor Norway and also Lithuania, which reinstated the draft after abolishing it a decade ago. So, why is conscription back on the table, at least in some Western states? Also, how can these states recruit the best conscripts and maximize their utility in the armed forces? Today, Elisabeth Braw grapples with these questions and more.
  • 20 Feb 2017
    Nora Bensahel
    Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
    In this article, Nora Bensahel looks at how the US’ military dominance has led opponents to adopt ‘post-heroic’ strategies that have been lethal and effective, but also designed to avoid tipping into war. Given the Trump administration’s widely advertised ambivalence about multinational cooperation, our author expects America’s opponents to intensify their ‘gray zone’ efforts, particularly in the former Soviet space and the South China Sea.
  • 20 Feb 2017
    Anna Maria Dyner and Daniel Szeligowski
    Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)
    In this bulletin, Anna Maria Dyner and Daniel Szeligowski analyze the deteriorating security situation in the Donbas region of Ukraine and its potential consequences. They conclude that Russia will continue to leverage the ongoing conflict as a way to maintain its influence over its neighbor and break existing Western sanctions. In response, EU countries will need to back Ukraine more vigorously and extend additional humanitarian aid to its people.
  • 17 Feb 2017
    Andrea Carboni, Roudabeh Kishi and Clionadh Raleigh
    Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) Program
    This rundown of the political violence that occurred in Africa during 2016 yields three broad lessons: 1) The crisis points on the continent – Libya, South Sudan, Somalia and Nigeria – continued to produce significant violence; 2) under-reported crises in Burundi, Mozambique, Ethiopia, etc., led to a substantial amount of bloodshed; and 3) one-size-fits-all data analyses of these trends produce poor results. Read on for all the details.
  • 17 Feb 2017
    Camilla Born
    Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)
    In this brief, Camilla Born discusses the actions the UN Security Council (UNSC) might take to address climate-related security risks. She specifically looks at 1) the status of the global approach towards climate-related risk management, as laid out by the 2015 Paris Agreement; 2) the history of climate security debates within the UNSC; 3) the approaches the Security Council has previously adopted towards conflict prevention and how they might apply to climate security, and much more.
  • 16 Feb 2017
    Bryan Clark and Bryan McGrath
    War on the Rocks
    The US Navy isn’t fit for purpose, argue Bryan Clark and Bryan McGrath. Indeed, the well-worn template of a ‘one size fits all’ carrier strike group and amphibious ready group just isn’t versatile enough to meet today’s challenges. What’s needed is a navy with higher capacity, new capabilities, a different posture, and more flexible training and readiness processes, as Clark and McGrath describe here.
  • 16 Feb 2017
    Andrew Dobbs
    War is Boring
    In August 2016, the Philippine military and the Communist Party of the Philippines (CCP) agreed to a pause in the latter’s fifty-year-old insurgency against the state. Well, the CCP has restarted its ‘protracted people’s war’, which Andre Dobbs believes raises some interesting questions about President Rodrigo Duterte’s relationship with the CCP’s Maoist founder, Jose Maria Sison.
  • 15 Feb 2017
    Nodirbek Soliev
    Center for Security Studies (CSS)
    In this article, Nodirbek Soliev looks at 1) the growing disaffection of Uyghurs in the Xinjiang region of China; 2) their susceptibility to recruitment by IS and Al Qaeda; and 3) their movement into Southeast Asia, where the more radicalized among them might link up with existing militant groups. To blunt these trends, Soliev believes the Chinese government must develop comprehensive counter-radicalization and community engagement strategies, and focus more aggressively on winning the “hearts and minds” of the Uyghur community.
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Mon Feb 27 02:38:16 CET 2017
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