Publication

This Alert argues that since the middle of 2015 the influx of refugees out of Syria has been attributable to the violence within the country moving northwards, and thereby causing refugees to head straight to Europe via Turkey. Put another way, the common assumption that those going north are coming largely from camps in Jordan and Lebanon appears to be wrong. Since these refugees lack mobility and are mostly trapped where they are, the EU 1) needs to be mindful of counterintuitive and changing facts-on-the-ground, and 2) may need to adjust its understanding of what’s motivating those who are trekking northward.