Publication

This paper contends that despite the long shadow being cast by the Syrian Civil War next door, Lebanon has managed to remain precariously stable. The resilience is seemingly attributable to the high opportunity costs of war; the dampening effects of international and regional interests; and the positive roles of migration and the banking sector. In contrast, the factors that could undermine the country’s stability include jihadism and Sunni defections from the army; democratic decline and public frustration; Hizbullah’s broader ambitions; recurrent violence between refugees and host communities; and a slow, but constant, economic decline.