Governance

The Emerging Threat of Regional Challenges to Democratic Governance

Recent challenges to democratic governance in West Africa in the form of election-related disputes (e.g. Côte d’Ivoire) as well as the resurgence of coups d’état (e.g. Guinea, Mali), have in some cases threatened deterioration in national security apparatuses, with consequent threats to peace and security in fragile neighboring states.

The Conundrum of Democratic Elections based on a “Winner Takes All” Principle

Democratic elections can be vital building blocks in developing a stable state based on principles of representation of and delivery for all the people, the rule of law and good and accountable governance. They can also help in some cases in consolidating peace in post conflict societies. However, this is not necessarily true in all cases of post conflict peace building. The quest to achieve more representative and legitimate institutions in West Africa, through the holding of national elections, has suffered some notable setbacks in recent years, with some violent reactions. This raises concerns about an emerging pattern of retrogression from a genuine commitment to democratization: alienation of sections of the citizenry from the key political players and the generation of further grievances, which encourage recourse to violence by disaffected groups with arguments of exclusion and bad governance.

The fiercely competitive nature of party politics has been a factor threatening stability in the region in large part because there is a widespread perception of elections as a “winner takes all” event. This perception, against a backdrop of palpable inter-ethnic tensions, raises the stakes and risks for all those involved.

Countries like Ghana have successfully transitioned from one government to another through credible democratic elections. However, in a sense this may be the exception rather than the rule. Nigeria’s 2007 elections left much to be desired. The 2010 presidential elections in Guinea led to the outbreak of violence along ethnic lines that threatened to engulf the country in civil war, with potential security risks for its neighboring countries.

In Côte d’Ivoire, the case of the election dispute over the outcome of the 28 November 2010 presidential elections, which was designed to help bring closure to the country’s peace and security challenges, has graphically underlined the problem. The refusal of the camp of Laurent Gbagbo to cede office, following UN certification of the results in favor of his opponent Alassane Ouattara, led to a four-month long tense standoff and widespread violence against civilians. There was a real fear that the country would unravel into full scale civil war, with a possible domino effect on its neighboring countries, especially those that are recently emerging from conflict like Liberia and fragile states like Guinea.

The zero-sum-game increasingly being adopted by some key political actors seems to be producing a trend in which democratic elections are being used as occasions to exploit underlying socioeconomic and ethnic differences to reinforce bids for power.

This seems to be accompanied by an upsurge in violence which increasingly is being seen in periods when general elections are being held in countries in the region. Partisan security forces have become part of the problem and the judicial machinery often seems complicit or to be turning a blind eye to electoral rigging and violence. The judiciary also in some contexts seems influenced by the “winner takes all” culture, leading to pervasive impunity and weak rule of law.

Renewed Propensity to Unconstitutional Changes of Government

Another factor in the emerging threats to stability, which may be linked to or even result from the “winner takes all” culture, has been a renewed pattern of unconstitutional changes in government by coups d’état in West Africa in recent times. While coups d’état are not new phenomena in West Africa’s chequered political history, the recent unconstitutional changes in government have given rise for concern especially since the post-Cold War era coup attempts have also led to violent civil strife (e.g. Liberia, Sierra Leone and Côte d’Ivoire) and affected stability in neighboring countries.

In Guinea a military junta seized power on 23 December 2008 after the death of long-serving President Lansana Conte. The coup was widely condemned internationally. Both the AU and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) decided to suspend Guinea until the return of constitutional order in the country. The intense domestic pressure and political response including mass democratic protests was surpassed by the killing of over a hundred civilians by security forces. However, following strong international pressure, including a presidential statement by the Security Council about possible prosecution of the junta leaders found to be responsible for the killings before the ICC, the coup leaders relented on their bid for power and held elections leading to the eventual choice of a civilian president.

In August 2008 authorities in Guinea-Bissau uncovered an attempted coup d’état, allegedly organized by the then-navy chief of staff, Rear Admiral José Américo Bubo Na Tchuto. Bubo Na Tchuto, who was suspended and kept under house arrest, subsequently escaped to Gambia where the national authorities reported his arrest and sought the assistance of the UN to return him to Guinea-Bissau.

During the weekend of 22 November 2008 the then-president of Guinea-Bissau, João Bernardo Vieira, escaped unharmed in an overnight attack on his home by mutinous soldiers. In a subsequent dramatic turn of events that threatened Guinea-Bissau’s fragile democracy and security situation, both the chief of the armed forces, General Batista Tagme Na Waie, and President Vieira were assassinated on consecutive days, 1 and 2 March 2009. The Council and other international bodies condemned the assassinations. (At the time regional security implications were also of concern, including Guinea- Bissau’s border with Senegal’s restive Casamance region, an area where a long separatist struggle had been highly influenced by Guinea-Bissau’s politics. There were concerns that further unrest in Guinea-Bissau could undermine the cross-border cooperation that has bolstered peace in Casamance.)

On 28 June 2009 presidential elections were held in Guinea-Bissau, followed by a run-off on 26 July, with Malam Bacai Sanhá of the governing African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde emerging as the winner with 63 percent of the votes. He subsequently appointed Carlos Gomes Júnior as Prime Minister.

However, the election did not produce a return to political normalcy in Guinea-Bissau. A major military insurrection took place on 1 April 2010. The mutiny was orchestrated by former deputy Army Chief of Staff, Major General António Indjai, with the apparent support of the former navy chief, Bubo Na Tchuto, who had returned to the country from exile in Gambia in December 2009. (Bubo Na Tchuto had returned from Gambia where he had fled following his implication in a failed coup attempt in August 2008 and had until 1 April been living under protective asylum within the premises of the headquarters of UNIOGBIS.)

Indjai initially detained Prime Minister Carlos Gomes Júnior together with the then-Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Zamora Induta, with about a dozen of the latter’s perceived (mostly military) allies. Following a spontaneous gathering of hundreds of civilians on 1 April 2010 to express support for the prime minister, call for his release and oppose the mutiny, Gomes Júnior was released. Induta remained in detention. (He was eventually released in December 2010, following various international calls, including by the Security Council through various statements, for the government to either bring him to trial or release him.)

On 1 April 2010 the Council issued a press statement expressing concern about the military incidents that had taken place that day in Guinea-Bissau. It urged all parties to avoid acts of violence, uphold constitutional order and respect the rule of law.

President Sahna and Prime Minister Gomes have since continued in their constitutional capacities with the president describing the insurrection as “confusion between soldiers”, but both seem to be in enfeebled positions. De facto power seems to continue to reside, at least to some extent, with Indjai who has been subsequently appointed head of the armed forces of the country. The dropping of treason charges against Bubo Na Tchuto and his appointment as head of the country’s navy seemed to confirm reports of his increasing influence in state affairs.

On 6 August 2008 in Mauritania, General Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz, former chief of staff of the Mauritanian army and head of the Presidential Guard, took power from Mauritania’s first democratically elected president, Sidi Mohamed Ould Cheikh Abdallahi, in a coup. On 19 August the Security Council adopted a presidential statement condemning the overthrow and demanding the immediate release of Abdallahi and “the restoration of the legitimate, constitutional, democratic institutions” (S/PRST/2008/30). The Council also said it opposed any attempts to change governments through unconstitutional means and added that it would monitor the situation. The military junta did not comply. Presidential elections were eventually organized by the junta in July 2009, with its leader Abdel Aziz prevailing as the winner.

In early 2009 Niger witnessed what some described as a “constitutional coup”. President Mamadou Tandja had ruled Niger for more than a decade when he was toppled by a coup in February 2010. Tandja sought to extend his stay in power in 2009 by changing the constitution to allow him to seek a third term, with his supporters citing the relative socioeconomic gains that he had made. Niger’s Constitutional Court thrice ruled that Tandja’s plans for a referendum on the issue were illegal. However, Tanja responded by disbanding both the court and parliament, and assumed emergency powers. A referendum was subsequently held in August 2009, with Tandja winning. But the opposition described the referendum results as rigged and accused the president of staging a coup.

Council Dynamics on Challenges to Democratic Governance

The willingness and ability of the AU Peace and Security Council (PSC) to act in concert against coups on the African continent, in recent years, have stood in contrast to the lack of quick and effective support to the PSC by the UN Security Council. In early 2009 the AU had expressed its “deep concern over the resurgence of the scourge of coups d’état on the Continent, which constitutes not only a dangerous political downturn and a serious setback to the democratic processes, but also a threat to peace, security and stability” of the continent and called on its members “to react and firmly and unequivocally put an end to this scourge.” It also requested its partners to support the decisions taken by its organs on unconstitutional changes of government. However, despite AU PSC calls for Council support of its decisions, there has been reticence in the Council to support AU sanctions by adopting its own corresponding targeted sanctions or even by putting issues on its agenda for discussion.

China and Russia have been reluctant to impose sanctions as a matter of policy, citing the potential to infringe on the sovereign rights of states. The other permanent Council members—the UK, the US and France—have been reluctant to make condemnation of coups an automatic Security Council practice. The lack of an apparent threat to peace and security has often been raised to justify inaction.

It is fair to say that most Council members have been concerned about the escalation of violence in the lead up to elections in the sub-regions, especially when it pertains to developments in countries that have recently emerged from violent civil conflict or could potentially slide into conflict. This has been reflected in some of its statements and resolutions calling for key players in each political context to exercise restraint in their activities to avert the outbreak of violence (e.g. On 17 September 2010 the Council issued a press statement expressing concern about the violent political clashes in Guinea that occurred in early September and regret about the postponement of the second round of presidential elections, while urging the Guinean government to ensure a calm and peaceful electoral environment [SC/10035]). However, there have been serious differences of opinion among key members as to how far the Council should go beyond voicing concerns. Western members and some African members have preferred a more vocal response to such developments, Russia and China and have been inclined towards a more cautious approach citing the sovereign rights of nations.