Global Terrorism Mid-Year Review 2016

This article was external pageoriginally publishedcall_made in the Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis Journal by the external pageS. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)call_made in July 2016

Introduction

In the first half of 2016, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) dominated the global threat landscape by mounting attacks in North America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, the Caucasus and Asia. At the forefront was IS’ spokesperson, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, who directed and inspired attacks worldwide, including those which took place during the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. On 24 July 2016, a suicide bombing attack took place in the south German town of Ansbach. The attacker was a 27-year-old Syrian man who faced deportation to Bulgaria and who had detonated the device after being refused entry to a music festival. Investigations revealed that the suicide attacker had pledged allegiance to IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in a video found on his mobile phone. IS has since claimed responsibility for the attack.

In May 2016, in an audio message purportedly from al-Adnani, the spokesman declared Ramadan a "month of conquest and jihad." He announced: "Make it, with God's permission, a month of pain for infidels everywhere" (Mowat 2016). The “Ramadan jihad” of IS killed at least 800, mostly Muslims, across five different continents (Drury 2016). Some of the attacks included those in Orlando (US), Nice (France), Bavaria (Germany), Istanbul (Turkey), Dhaka (Bangladesh), Kabul (Afghanistan), Mindanao (Philippines), Puchong (Malaysia), Solo (Indonesia), Medina (Saudi Arabia), Lebanon,  Iraq and Syria. The spate of IS attacks were most intense during the last week of Ramadan when IS carried out an attack on Istanbul Airport, killing 45 people, detonated a truck bomb in Karrada, in Baghdad, killing 290 people, and carried out a suicide bomb attack in the vicinity of the Prophet’s mosque in the Saudi Arabian city of Medina, the second holiest site in Islam, after Makkah.

The Context

Although IS has managed to build a global network, it is under severe pressure from numerous security actions and coalition attacks. It has already lost 47 percent of its territory in Iraq and Syria (Hudson 2016). Last month, it lost Fallujah, its valuable launch-pad for terrorist attacks against Baghdad. It is also at risk of losing Mosul, a city it occupied since June 2014. Coalition drone attacks, airstrikes and combat forces have depleted IS rank and file. Two weeks ago, IS also lost its most celebrated military commander, Umar al-Shishani in the Iraqi city of Shirqat (Al Jazeera 2016). At the time of his death, the Chechen commander was tasked by Abu Bakr al Baghdadi to prepare the defences of Mosul.

In the aftermath of IS’ bombing of Istanbul Airport in June, Turkey denied IS its territory as a transit point to Syria, and a vital forward operational base to target IS’ enemies. IS will now be forced to open new routes through Lebanon and operate covertly in Turkey. In addition to relying on its satellite provinces (wilayah), IS will rely on groups that have pledged allegiance to al Baghdadi. By using encrypted messages, IS will build more cells and networks outside Iraq and Syria to sustain attacks against its enemies.

The Threat to the West

After the tragedies of Paris and Brussels attacks, the world witnessed terrorist attacks unfold in Nice, Magnanvile and Orlando. On 13 June, in Magnanvile, France, Larossi Abballa, a French citizen of Moroccan descent stabbed to death a police officer and his wife (police secretary) and took their three-year-old child hostage. The attacker posted the video of the attack, including his pledge to al Baghdadi, on social network sites. On 12 June 2016, in Orlando, Florida, Omar Mateen, an IS supporter, attacked a gay night club, killing 49 and injuring 53 others. An American security guard, Mateen belonged to an Afghan family, and was previously known to the US government as an extremist (Kalamur & Ford 2016). The Orlando shooting attack is by far the deadliest terrorist attack in the US since the 9/11 attacks and the deadliest mass shooting attack by a single shooter.

On 14 July 2016, Mohamed Lahouaiej-Bouhlel drove a 19-tonne refrigerated lorry into a crowd celebrating Bastille Day. The 31-year-old French Tunisian delivery man, Lahouaiej-Bouhlel ploughed through two kilometres of the Promenade des Anglais before exchanging fire with the police (Beaumont & Fischer 2016). The attack, staged by IS, resulted in 84 dead and 202 injured; the death toll may increase as 25 of those critically injured are on life support. The attack was inspired by Adnani, who said in a message through al Furqan media to kill by any means.

The Threat to the Middle East and Africa

On 6 July 2016, three terrorists attacked the Istanbul Airport, killing 36 and injuring 147. With Turkey targeting the IS’ infrastructure on its soil, Turkey has suffered from half a dozen reprisal attacks, which also involved the killing of ten Germans in January. This has affected both the country’s tourism and foreign direct investment. With Turkey joining the fight against IS, it is likely that Turkey will face more attacks.

IS also struck Lebanon, which is another gateway to Syria. On 27 June, eight suicide bombers in two waves attacked Lebanon's Christian town of Al Qaa, killing five and wounding 11. In the Middle East, IS also launched an attack in Mukalla, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia where a number of attacks were prevented, including an attack against the US consulate in Jeddah.

In Africa, there are signs that IS is gaining the upper hand in the Maghreb and Sahel and infiltrating the Horn of Africa. The threat of IS is likely to persist in the Maghreb with pockets in Libya, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia. The IS threat will also expand in the Sahel from Nigeria to Niger, Chad, Mali, and Mauritania, and spread from the Horn into Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. On 4 July 2016, in a latest development, a breakaway faction of al Shabaab -Jabha East Africa – urged Kenyan and Tanzanian members to defect to IS (SITE 2016). Separately, despite French-led efforts, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) expanded its operations into the Greater Sahara Region. AQIM’s Sahara division also raided the Mali army check-posts on the border between Mali and Burkina Faso.

The Threat to Asia

In South Asia, IS expanded its operations in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh, the traditional turf of Al Qaeda. Although the Government of Bangladesh was firm in its resolve to fight terrorism and extremism, the country witnessed both Al Qaeda and IS attacks. During the first half of 2016, IS mounted eleven attacks, including those on Hindus in Bonpara, Dhaka, Jhenaidah and Rangpur, Christians in Bonpara, Kushtia and Rangpur, and a Buddhist party leader in Jhenaidah.

The worst attack in Bangladesh was on the last Friday of Ramadan. A five-member IS team attacked the upscale Holey Aristan Bakery in the capital city, Dhaka, in the diplomatic enclave of Gulshan. The IS team herded the hostages and attacked after separating the Muslims from non-Muslims. The attack resulted in the killing of 20 civilians and two police officers. Over 50 were injured, with foreigners being the primary targets; the terrorists killed nine from Italy, seven from Japan, one from India and one from the US. The Bangladesh government continues to deny that IS was responsible for the attack. Unless Bangladeshi political elites focus their attention on the terrorist threat, the menace will grow and affect its economy, social stability and national security.

In Southeast Asia, IS successfully mounted attacks in Indonesia in January, Philippines in April and in Malaysia in June. Singapore also arrested, deported and prosecuted IS supporters. The IS also appointed Isnilon Hapilon, the former leader of the Basilan-branch of Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), as the leader of IS Philippines. The newly-formed IS Philippines led by Hapilon was joined by nine groups from Lanao del Sur, Sarangani, Sulu, South Cotabato, Isabela and Basilan. IS Philippines was also joined by Jund ul Tawhid led by Amin Baco (Malaysian), Islamic State Lanao led by Abdullah Maute and Ansar Khilafah Philippines led by Tokboy. IS strategy is to declare a wilayat in Southern Philippines; it has called on those who cannot travel to Iraq and Syria to travel to South Philippines and join the IS fighters there.

In Northeast Asia, IS groomed its support network in Xinjiang and established a route for Uighurs to travel to Turkey through Southeast Asia. Uighur syndicates, some working together with Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), built a passage via Southeast Asia in reaction to the Central Asian governments disrupting their travels. Although TIP remains most influential, IS seeks to expand its influence in Xinjiang.

The Threat to Latin America

As of July 2016, IS has successfully infiltrated all the continents, including Latin America. This includes the Triple Frontier concentrated in the Tri-Border Area of Ciudad del Este in Paraguay, Puerto Iguazú, Argentina and Foz do Iguaçu in Brazil where 50,000 Arab, Asian and African immigrant communities live. A group called Ansar al-Khilafah Brazil pledged allegiance to al-Baghdadi, and promoted IS propaganda on its Telegram channel (Bearak 2016). Aside from posting the pledge of allegiance in Arabic on 17 July 2016, the group has also released fourteen issues of IS flagship magazine, Dabiq, disseminated English and Portuguese translations of IS spokesperson al-Adnani's May 2016 speech, and printed posters by the pro-ISIS Granddaughters of Aisha Foundation publicising the attacks in France. Specifically, the Portuguese translation of al-Adnani's speech was forwarded from the Telegram channel of an IS activist, Ismail Abdul Jabbar al-Brazili. On 17 July, Ansar al-Khilafah Brazil also posted a Portuguese message questioning the training of Brazilian police by French police officers, when the French were unable to prevent domestic attacks by IS fighters (Bowater 2016). In order to prevent IS from taking root in Latin America, South and Central American governments will have to identify the emerging cells and dismantle them at an early stage.

IS Propaganda

IS continues to place great emphasis on propaganda and information management.  It produces the slick, glossy and well-composed online magazine Dabiq, now into its 14th issue (since 5 July 2014).  Amaq news agency acts as IS’ official mouthpiece, alongside several other official media outlets which include, An-Naba’, Maktabah Al-Himmah and Ajnad. IS media outlets and publications are all geared towards glorifying the IS, boasting about its conquests and achievements, extolling the many acts of martyrdom, and vilifying its enemies, particularly the US and its allies, as well as the Shiites and Muslims who oppose them.  These publications also contain battlefront news and photographs of various militant groups supporting IS all aimed at attracting new followers and boosting the morale of existing fighters and members.  

More insidious is its dissemination of erroneous religious teachings, calling on Muslims to join IS, hijrah (migrate) to IS-controlled territories, and participate in violent and genocidal jihad against its enemies, distorting and misinterpreting religious texts, justifying acts of extreme cruelty and the revival of abolished ancient practices, and conjuring up images of End of Times and epic battles between IS believers and non-believers.  

IS’ publications also provide technical details on bomb-making. Going by the thousands who have made their way to IS territories, the militants who continue to pledge allegiance to al Baghdadi, and the self-radicalisation cases in the East and West, these publications have had some resonance among the disgruntled and alienated groups and individuals.

Conclusion

Although IS has been on a rampage in the last few weeks, the fact remains that it has suffered serious losses in Iraq and Syria.  Coalition air strikes have killed over 25,000 IS fighters.  Many of its key leaders have been killed by precision drone attacks and Coalition or US Special Forces.  IS has suffered the loss of cities, towns and territories in both Iraq and Syria. Its revenue has been reduced by bombing raids on IS-held oil fields, and the number of recruits has declined because of tighter border controls. IS also faces pressure from the Muslim world which has denounced IS as unIslamic, deviant and even heretical.

The terrorism threat however remains challenging. IS remains committed to its operating slogan of “remaining and expanding”, fighting to retain control of existing territories or recover lost ones, and declaring provinces where there are substantial local support.  In its latest video entitled “The Structure of the Khilafah” produced to commemorate the second anniversary of the formation of the Islamic State, it claims to have 35 provinces.  It has co-opted militant and separatist groups which have sworn allegiance to al Baghdadi, calling them “Junud Al -Khilafah” or Soldiers of the Caliphate.  Should IS lose its strongholds in Iraq and Syria in the coming months, it would go underground or move to its ‘provinces’ like Libya where there is already a sizeable IS presence.  Unless IS’ top leadership is eliminated and the movement degraded and destroyed, it will continue to expand, territorially and ideologically.  

Attention should also be paid on the threat from Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda-centric threat groups remain active in the Sahel, Maghreb, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Indonesia, Philippines and China. For instance, most Chinese Uighurs have joined Jabhat al-Nusra, the Al Qaeda branch in Syria. Additionally, in March 2016, Al Qaeda-centric groups in the Sahel mounted an attack in Ivory Coast, which killed 15 civilians and three security forces personnel (Fortune 2016).

Al Qaeda and IS have competed to enlist members, supporters and sympathisers. Although al-Nusra is fighting against both IS and the Syrian regime, it will be a mistake for Middle Eastern governments to sponsor al-Nusra. Considering the long-term implications of supporting armed non-state actors, governments should exercise caution and restraint in empowering one group to weaken another.

Another looming threat is the possible merger of IS and Al Qaeda if either Abu Bakr al Baghdadi or Ayman al Zawahiri is killed. The current dispute between IS and al-Nusra is a clash over leadership and not only ideology. If these two powerful terrorist movements merge, they will present an unprecedented threat to the countries where they are operating and beyond. As such, the global response should be against both Al Qaeda and IS and their associates.

The scale, magnitude and frequency of IS attacks increased in the first half of 2016, creating a gulf between Muslims and non-Muslims. Although more Muslims suffered in the IS attacks, anger, prejudice and suspicion by non -Muslims against Muslims have grown. Islamophobia and the rise of right wing political activism in the US, Europe and Australia have sharpened divisions and raised tensions. To ensure harmonious relations between Muslims and non-Muslims, it is imperative for world leaders to engage all religious communities in order to bridge the divide.  The IS strategy is to seed a culture of violence by inculcating hatred. As the centre of gravity of terrorism is ideology, the Arab and the Muslim World should build comprehensive campaigns to counter the extremist ideology and promote tolerance and moderation among vulnerable segments of the Muslim communities.

Despite various countermeasures, the threat has grown, due to the lack of global counter-terrorism leadership and non-resolution of various sources of political, social and economic discontent. The fight against IS and Al Qaeda will last several years due to the geopolitical and geostrategic disagreements among major powers as well as regional players. If major powers can collaborate across regions to build military, intelligence, economic and strategic communications capabilities, IS and Al Qaeda structures can be dismantled. The capabilities should be built and strengthened to fight both in and outside the battlefields. With IS exploitation of the cyber space, governments should build partnerships with technology firms and service providers. As long as terrorists use end-to-end encryption and governments have no visibility into the operational planning, terrorist attacks will continue. To contain, isolate and eliminate IS and Al Qaeda at their cores and in the peripheries, it is paramount to expand and unite the coalitions. In addition, positive action must be taken to deny IS and Al Qaeda opportunities to exploit political and socio-economic grievances. The promotion of inter-religious harmony and social cohesion is also imperative to prevent terrorists and extremists from sowing discord and disunity. Without greater understanding between nations, strong political will and better governance, IS and Al Qaeda will continue to make inroads into failed states and exploit vulnerable communities to cause chaos, death and destruction.

References

Al Jazeera. 2016. external pageIraq: ISIL says Omar al-Shishani killed in air strike.call_made Accessed July 20, 2016.

Al-Monitor. 2016. external pageLebanese Christian village hit with eight suicide attacks in one daycall_made. Accessed July 15, 2016.

BBC News. 2016. external pageWho was French police killer Larossi Abballa?call_made Accessed July 18, 2016.

Bearak, Max. 2016. external pageBrazilian extremist groupuses Telegram to pledge allegiance to ISIS ahead of Olympics.call_made The Washington Post, Accessed July 20, 2016.

Bowater, Donna. 2016. external pageBrazil extremists declareloyalty to Islamic State in first public declaration in South America, weeks ahead of Olympics.call_made The Telegraph, Accessed July 21, 2016.

Calamur, Khrisnadev, Ford, Matt & Koren, Marina. 2016. external pageOrlando NightclubAttack: What We Know.call_madeThe Atlantic, Accessed July 19, 2016.

Drury, Flora. 2016. external pageIslamic State’s ‘four weeks of pain for infidels’ claim morethan 800 lives.call_made Daily Mail, Accessed July 19, 2016.

Fortune. 2016. external pageAl Qaeda Gunmen Kill 16 in Ivory Coast Beach Attack.call_made Accessed July 20, 2016.

Hack, Jens, Poltz, Joern and Strohecker. external pageGerman-Iranian Gunman Kills Nine in Munich, then Himself: Police.call_made Reuters, Accessed July 23, 2016.

Hudson, John. 2016. external pageTop U.S. Official: Islamic State Has Lost 47 Percent ofits Territory in Iraq.call_made Foreign Policy, Accessed July 18, 2016.

Middle East Media Research Institute. 2014. external pageResponding To U.S.-Led Campaign, IS Spokesman Calls To Kill Westerners, Including Civilians, ByAny Means Possible.call_made Accessed July 15, 2016.

Mowat, Laura. 2016. external pageIslamic State slaughters more than 800 people inbloodiest Ramadan.call_made Express News, Accessed July 20, 2016.

SITE Intelligence Group. 2016. external pagePro-IS "Jabha East Africa" Says Shabaab in"Great Crisis," Urges Defection.call_made Accessed July 15, 2016.

About the Author

Rohan Gunaratna is Professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University (NTU) and Head of the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research (ICPVTR) in Singapore. He is also the editor of the Handbook of Terrorism in the Asia-Pacific.